Nabago ba ang Pagbabago ng Klima Pag-alis ng Atlantic na Tumutulong na Panatilihin ang Hangin ng Europa?

klima pagbabago

Nabago ba ang Pagbabago ng Klima Pag-alis ng Atlantic na Tumutulong na Panatilihin ang Hangin ng Europa?
Natalie Renier / Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
, Author ibinigay

Ang mga agos ng karagatan na tumutulong sa mainit-init ang mga baybayin ng Europa at Hilagang Amerika ay lubhang pinabagal dahil sa 1800s at nasa kanilang pinakamahina sa mga taon ng 1600, ayon sa bagong pananaliksik sa aking mga kasamahan at nagawa ko. Tulad ng aming itinakda sa isang bagong pag-aaral sa Kalikasan, ang pagpapahina ng sistemang sirkulasyon ng karagatan na ito ay maaaring nagsimula nang natural ngunit malamang na ipagpatuloy ng pagbabago ng klima na may kaugnayan sa emissions ng greenhouse gas.

Ang sirkulasyon na ito ay isang pangunahing manlalaro sa sistema ng klima ng Daigdig at ang malaking o biglaang paghina ay maaaring magkaroon ng mga global na epekto. Maaaring maging sanhi ito ng mga antas ng dagat sa timog silangang baybayin ng Estados Unidos upang palakihin, baguhin ang mga pattern ng European na panahon o mga pattern ng pag-ulan nang higit pa sa buong mundo, at saktan ang mga marine wildlife.

Ang kamakailang pagpapahina na aming natagpuan ay malamang na dulot ng warming sa north Atlantic at ang pagdaragdag ng freshwater mula sa mas mataas na pag-ulan at pagtunaw ng yelo. Ito ay hinulaang maraming beses ngunit, hanggang ngayon, kung gaano kalaki ang nangyari ay higit na nanatiling isang misteryo. Ang lawak ng mga pagbabago na natuklasan namin ay isang sorpresa sa marami, kabilang ang aking sarili, at tumuturo sa mga makabuluhang pagbabago sa hinaharap.

Alam namin na sa pagtatapos ng huling pangunahing panahon ng yelo, ang mabilis na pagbabagu-bago sa sirkulasyon ang humantong sa matinding pagbabago ng klima sa isang pandaigdigang antas. Ang isang exaggerated (ngunit sumisindak) halimbawa ng tulad ng isang biglaang kaganapan ay portrayed sa 2004 blockbuster film Ang Araw Pagkatapos Bukas.

Ang sistema ng sirkulasyon na pinag-uusapan ay kilala bilang "Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation"(AMOC). Ang AMOC ay tulad ng isang higanteng conveyor belt ng tubig. Nagdadala ito ng mainit, maalat na tubig sa hilagang Atlantic kung saan ito ay nagiging sobrang malamig at nalulubog. Sa sandaling nasa malalim na karagatan ang tubig ay umaagos pabalik sa timog at pagkatapos ay sa buong paligid ng mga karagatan sa mundo. Ang conveyor belt na ito ay isa sa mga pinakamahalagang transporters ng init sa sistema ng klima at kabilang ang Gulf Stream, na kilala para sa pagpapanatiling mainit-init sa kanlurang Europa.

Ang mga modelo ng klima ay patuloy na hinulaan na ang AMOC ay magpapabagal dahil sa pag-init ng greenhouse gas at mga kaugnay na pagbabago sa ikot ng tubig. Dahil sa mga hula na ito - at ang posibilidad ng biglaang mga pagbabago sa klima - sinusubaybayan ng mga siyentipiko ang AMOC dahil 2004 na may mga instrumento na nakalakip sa Atlantic sa mga pangunahing lokasyon. Ngunit upang tunay na subukan ang mga hula ng modelo at mag-ehersisyo kung paano ang pagbabago ng klima ay nakakaapekto sa conveyor na kailangan namin ng mas mahabang talaan.

Naghahanap ng mga pattern

Upang lumikha ng mga talang ito, ang aming grupo ng pananaliksik - na pinangunahan ng University College London na si Dr David Thornalley - ay gumamit ng ideya na ang pagbabago sa AMOC ay may natatanging pattern ng epekto sa karagatan. Kapag ang AMOC ay nakakakuha ng weaker, ang hilaga-silangang Atlantic Ocean cools at ang mga bahagi ng western Atlantic makakuha ng pampainit sa pamamagitan ng isang tiyak na halaga. Maaari nating hanapin ang pattern na ito sa mga nakaraang rekord ng temperatura ng karagatan upang subaybayan kung ano ang tulad ng sirkulasyon sa nakaraan.

Ang isa pang pag-aaral sa parehong isyu ng Kalikasan, na pinangungunahan ng mga mananaliksik sa University of Potsdam sa Germany, ginamit ang mga makasaysayang obserbasyon ng temperatura upang suriin ang fingerprint. Napag-alaman nila na ang AMOC ay nabawasan sa lakas ng humigit-kumulang na 15% mula noong 1950, na tumuturo sa papel na ginagampanan ng ginawa ng tao na greenhouse gas emissions bilang pangunahing dahilan.

Sa aming papel, na bumubuo rin ng bahagi ng Proyekto ng EU ATLAS, nakita namin ang parehong fingerprint. Ngunit sa halip na gumamit ng mga makasaysayang obserbasyon, ginamit namin ang aming kadalubhasaan sa nakalipas na pananaliksik sa klima upang makabalik nang higit pa sa oras. Ginawa namin ito sa pamamagitan ng pagsasama-sama ng mga kilalang talaan ng mga labi ng mga maliliit na nilalang sa dagat na matatagpuan sa putik ng dagat. Maaaring magtrabaho ang temperatura sa pamamagitan ng pagtingin sa mga halaga ng iba't ibang uri ng hayop at mga kemikal na komposisyon ng kanilang mga kalansay.

Nakuha rin namin ang direktang pagsukat ng nakaraang matinding karagatan sa kasalukuyang bilis sa pamamagitan ng pagtingin sa putik mismo. Ang mas malaking butil ng putik ay nagpapahiwatig ng mas mabilis na alon, habang ang mas maliit na butil ay nangangahulugang ang mga alon ay mas mahina. Ang parehong mga pamamaraan na tumuturo sa isang pagpapahina ng AMOC simula noong tungkol sa 1850, muli sa pamamagitan ng tungkol sa 15% hanggang 20%. Mahalaga, ang modernong pagpapahina ay ibang-iba sa anumang nakikita sa huling mga taon ng 1600, na tumuturo sa isang kumbinasyon ng mga likas at pang-tao na mga driver.

Ang pagkakaiba sa panahon ng pagsisimula ng pagpapahina ng AMOC sa dalawang pag-aaral ay nangangailangan ng mas maraming pang-agham na pansin. Sa kabila ng pagkakaiba na ito, ang parehong mga bagong pag-aaral ay nagpapataas ng mga mahahalagang katanungan tungkol sa kung ang mga modelo ng klima ay gayahin ang mga makasaysayang pagbabago sa sirkulasyon ng karagatan, at kung kailangan nating muling bisitahin ang ilan sa aming mga pag-asa sa hinaharap.

Ang pag-uusapGayunpaman, ang bawat karagdagang mahabang rekord ay ginagawang mas madali upang suriin kung gaano kahusay ang mga modelo na gayahin ang susi elemento ng sistema ng klima. Sa katunayan, ang pagsusuri ng mga modelo laban sa mahahabang talaan ay maaaring isang mahalagang hakbang kung inaasahan naming tumpak na mahuhulaan ang posibleng matinding mga kaganapan ng AMOC at ang kanilang mga epekto sa klima.

Tungkol sa Ang May-akda

Peter T. Spooner, Pananaliksik Associate sa Paleoceanography, UCL

Ang artikulong ito ay orihinal na na-publish sa Ang pag-uusap. Basahin ang ang orihinal na artikulo.

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Bumili na Ngayon
Repasuhin ang Editoryal:
Ito ay isang pagpaparami ng isang aklat na inilathala bago 1923. Ang aklat na ito ay maaaring may mga paminsan-minsang imperpeksyon
tulad ng mga nawawalang pahina o blurred, mahihirap na larawan, mali ang marka, at iba pa na bahagi ng orihinal na artepakto,
o ipinakilala sa pamamagitan ng proseso ng pag-scan. Naniniwala kami na ang gawaing ito ay mahalaga sa kultura, at sa kabila ng mga di-kasakdalan,
na inihalal upang ibalik ito sa pag-print bilang bahagi ng aming patuloy na pangako sa pangangalaga ng mga naka-print na gawa
sa buong mundo. Pinahahalagahan namin ang iyong pag-unawa sa mga di-kasakdalan sa proseso ng pagpapanatili, at umaasa nasiyahan ka sa mahalagang aklat na ito.



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Ang data sa ibaba ay naipon mula sa iba't ibang mga patlang ng pagkakakilanlan sa bibliographic record ng pamagat na ito. Ang data na ito ay ibinigay bilang isang karagdagang tool sa pagtulong upang matiyak ang pagkakakilanlan ng edisyon:

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Kapangyarihan At Pagkontrol Ng Ang Gulf Stream: Paano Ito Nag-uutos Ang Climates, Heat At Banayad Ng Mundo. Sa pamamagitan ng Pagprotekta Ang Warm North-umaagos Gulf Stream Mula sa Onslaughts Ng Ang Ice-malamig South-umaagos Labrador Kasalukuyang Man Puwede Control Lahat. Dahilan At Mga Epekto Ng Mga Dagat ng Dagat, Ang Equatorial At Ang ... Carroll Livingston Riker Ang Baker & Taylor co., 1912 Agham; Mga Agham ng Lupa; Oceanography; Gulf Stream; Science / Earth Sciences / Oceanography </div><br /><br style="clear:both;" /> <br /> <br style="clear:both;" /> </div> <div class="fastsocialshare_container"><div class="fastsocialshare-share-fbl"> <script> var loadAsyncDeferredFacebook = function() { var d = document; var s = 'script'; var id = 'facebook-jssdk'; var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "//connect.facebook.net/en_GB/all.js#xfbml=1"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }; if (window.addEventListener) window.addEventListener("load", loadAsyncDeferredFacebook, false); else if (window.attachEvent) window.attachEvent("onload", loadAsyncDeferredFacebook); else window.onload = loadAsyncDeferredFacebook; </script> <div id="fb-root"></div> <fb:like href="https://innerself.com/content/social/environment/climate/impacts/17048-climate-change-is-slowing-atlantic-currents-that-help-keep-europe-warm.html" layout="button_count" width="100" colorscheme="light" action="like" ></fb:like></div> <div id="fbshare_container" class="fastsocialshare-share-fbsh"> <a style="text-decoration:none; 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